One consequence of a 3 month hiatus, forced initially by surgery and concluded more voluntarily with much needed relaxation in Hawaii, is that I have had time to actually read and digest much of the material that, all too often, I only have time to quickly scan – and then rarely get back to. Amongst all this material was a considerable amount of prognostication on 2012 trends. In many ways, little of this was new, but collectively, it does amount to a “perfect storm” that challenges the way we as individuals, societies, and enterprises – small and large, public and private, look at, use and manage technology, including both the demand and supply side and, probably most importantly, where they intersect. In this post, I will briefly discuss the elements of this “perfect storm”, add the one element that I find to be conspicuously missing from the dialogue, and discuss the implications of both.
- The “cloud” – the dream of the “information utility” has been around for decades, and now, with the “cloud”, while there are still significant governance, security and privacy issues to work through (some real, some “noise”), this is now closer to being a reality.
- The data explosion, “big data” – I read recently that 90% of the data in the world today was created in the last 2 years – this exponential growth of data is creating both enormous challenges, and great opportunities – on the technology side, developments include the rise of Hadoop, and recent announcements of Dynamo DB from Amazon, and Big Data Appliance from Oracle, as well as the growing need for new data visualization and “data scientist” skills.
- Analytics, particularly real-time analytics – some of the technologies mentioned above, and indeed those below, are fundamentally changing the analytics landscape. Huge amounts of data – structured or unstructured, can now be analyzed quickly, and data can increasingly be captured and analyzed in real time. The challenge here is to resist the temptation to succumb to analysis paralysis – to know what information is both relevant and important, what questions to ask, and to think ahead to what actions might need be taken as a result of based on the answers to these questions.
- Mobility – services can now be accessed, data captured, information found, and transactions performed from almost anywhere – other work locations, coffee shops, restaurants and bars, at home, in other countries, in taxis, trains or buses, on airplanes or even on a cruise ship – limitations of distance and time have been virtually eliminated. The challenge here, apart from the security and privacy issues that are common to most of these points, is to be able to find the “off” button in an increasingly, always on, 24/7 world. On an individual basis we need to maintain a work-life balance, and from a business perspective, “burn out” seriously erodes the effectiveness and value of their most critical resource – people.
- Consumerization, including BYOD and “app”s – while it could be argued that these 3 could each merit their own category, I have chosen to “lump” them together as, collectively, they represent a further significant shift from the traditional “technology push” world, with the IT function in a control mode as the gatekeeper, to the “user tool pull” world with IT, potentially – if they get it right, in a facilitation role as a service broker.
- Social Media – this is, to some extent, simply one “flavour” of the previous 2 elements, but a very significant one, with potentially huge implications. While much of the attention to date has been on controlling social media, enterprises are increasingly using it as a communication channel, and beyond that, to tap into it to find out what their customers, and employees are thinking. Here, one challenge/opportunity that I see how we can use social media to improve performance by tapping into the collective knowledge within organizations – “crowd sourcing” input into decision-making and, as a result, making better-informed decisions, and having employees feel more connected with, and empowered by their organizations.
In all the discussion around the elements of this “perfect storm”, much if not most of the focus had been on the IT function needing to respond more quickly to deliver and/or support capabilities in these areas. There has been much less discussion of how the use of these technologies will be used to lead to positive outcomes – creating and/or sustaining individual, societal and enterprise value – or of the changes that will be needed in the behaviour of individuals, societies and enterprises if that value is to be realized. If we as individuals and societies are not to become “the tools of our tools”, and enterprises are not to continue the increasingly expensive and value-destructive litany of IT failures, we need to shift our focus from the technology to how we manage and use the capabilities that the technologies provide to increase the value of our lives, our societies and our enterprises.
I don’t make these comments as a later day “luddite”, rather my focus on value is driven by many decades of frustration at our being nowhere near to realizing the individual, societal and business value that intelligent and appropriate use of technology can create. We will not close that gap until we – as individuals, or leaders in society or business, take “ownership” of how we use technology, based on the outcomes that are important to us, and the value that we seek to create and sustain! In the enterprise world, this has fundamental implications for the roles and accountabilities of business executives and line of business managers, and for the role of the IT function, as discussed in 2 earlier posts, The Future of IT, and Value from IT – There is a Better Way!
In closing, in the context of individual and societal value, 2 areas that I have long had an interest in, and that I will be watching closely this year are healthcare and education. While we shouldn’t expect seismic shifts in either to happen quickly – it’s just not the nature of the beasts, the ground is starting to move. In healthcare, much of this is driven by the funding crunch, with increase focus on eHealth, based largely on “meaningful use” of EHRs, as well as an increasing number of apps such as Phillips Vital Signs Camera for the iPad. In education, with some exceptions, it is still somewhat more of a grass roots movement, although Apple’s recent iBooks 2 and iTunesU announcements, and organizations such as Curriki may well be changing this. What I believe we will see here, over time, is an evolution beyond eHealth and eLearning to iHealth, and iLearning, with individuals taking increasing “ownership” of their own health and education.